Forecasting crude oil and oil products prices

Course title: Forecasting crude oil and oil products prices

Course Code: FCPP

Course summary: The 4-day course Forecasting Crude Oil and Oil Products Prices explains the key drivers of crude oil and oil product prices, and explains how these can be forecast in a logical and consistent manner over different time frames. The course outlines the three main forecasting techniques: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and econometric analysis, and explains their relevance to forecasting oil prices in particular time frames. An approach to forecasting oil products prices based on crude oil prices is outlined, using a model of refining margins and then allocating the oil product crack spreads within this framework based on the fundamental supply-demand outlook for individual oil products. Key exogenous factors that may impact prices are identified, and consideration is also given of the potential impact of new technology on the fundamentals of supply and demand in the future. The use of high/low and base case scenarios, and the concept of nominal and constant dollar forecasts are explained.

Course details
The 4-day course Forecasting Crude Oil and Oil Products Prices explains the key drivers of crude oil and oil product prices, and explains how these can be forecast in a logical and consistent manner over different time frames. The course outlines the three main forecasting techniques: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and econometric analysis, and explains their relevance to forecasting oil prices in particular time frames. An approach to forecasting oil products prices based on crude oil prices is outlined, using a model of refining margins and then allocating the oil product crack spreads within this framework based on the fundamental supply-demand outlook for individual oil products. Key exogenous factors that may impact prices are identified, and consideration is also given of the potential impact of new technology on the fundamentals of supply and demand in the future. The use of high/low and base case scenarios, and the concept of nominal and constant dollar forecasts are explained.
Who should attend? This course is essential for anyone with budgeting responsibility who is exposed to changes in oil and gas prices. This includes oil producers, marketers, refiners and petrochemicals firms, storage operators, distributors and retail players; oil consumers including vehicle fleet owners, airlines, hauliers, ship operators; gas producers and consumers whose contracts are indexed to crude oil and oil product prices such as diesel and fuel oil; and energy-intensive industries of all sorts, including the metals industry and other energy-intensive manufacturers. The most relevant staff categories would include economists, corporate planners, market analysts, investment analysts, but also senior executives and those with treasury responsibility.

Key objectives: The oil forecasting course is not intended as snake oil, but to provide rational structures for decision-making. The focus is on making disciplined forecasts for relevant time frames based on the three main forecasting techniques. As well as outlining a particular forecast scenario and a high/low scenario, the course engages participants with case studies that allow the forecast to be stress-tested and for internal inconsistencies to be unravelled.

Full Course Outline and PDF of Course Modules Available on Request

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