Forecasting Energy Prices

Course title: Forecasting Energy Prices

Course Code: FEPR

Course summary: The 4-day course Forecasting Energy Prices explains the key drivers of the oil, gas, coal and power markets, and the interactions between the competing fuels. The course outlines the three main forecasting techniques: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and econometric analysis, and explains their relevance to forecasting energy prices in particular time frames. An approach to forecasting energy prices is outlined, using a model of substitution between the competing fuels depending on prices and environmental constraints. Key exogenous factors that may impact energy prices are identified, and consideration is also given of the potential impact of new technology on the fundamentals of supply and demand for each of the fuels in the future. The use of high/low and base case scenarios, and the concept of nominal and constant dollar forecasts are explained.

Course details
The 4-day course Forecasting Energy Prices explains the key drivers of the oil, gas, coal and power markets, and the interactions between the competing fuels. The course outlines the three main forecasting techniques: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and econometric analysis, and explains their relevance to forecasting energy prices in particular time frames. An approach to forecasting energy prices is outlined, using a model of substitution between the competing fuels depending on prices and environmental constraints. Key exogenous factors that may impact energy prices are identified, and consideration is also given of the potential impact of new technology on the fundamentals of supply and demand for each of the fuels in the future. The use of high/low and base case scenarios, and the concept of nominal and constant dollar forecasts are explained.

Who should attend?
This course is essential for anyone with budgeting responsibility who is exposed to changes in energy prices. This includes energy-intensive industries of all sorts, including the metals industry and other energy-intensive manufacturers. Ol producers, marketers, refiners and petrochemicals firms, storage operators, distributors and retail players; oil consumers including vehicle fleet owners, airlines, hauliers, ship operators; gas producers and consumers whose contracts are indexed to crude oil and oil product prices such as diesel and fuel oil. The most relevant staff categories would include economists, corporate planners, market analysts, investment analysts, but also senior executives and those with treasury responsibility.

Key objectives:
The energy forecasting course is not intended as snake oil, but to provide rational structures for decision-making. The focus is on making disciplined forecasts for relevant time frames based on the three main forecasting techniques. As well as outlining a particular forecast scenario and a high/low scenario, the course engages participants with case studies that allow the forecast to be stress-tested and for internal inconsistencies to be unravelled.

Full Course Outline and PDF of Course Modules Available on Request

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