Forecasting Energy Prices

Forecasting Energy Prices

Course title: Forecasting Energy Prices

Course Code: FEPR

Course summary: The 4-day course Forecasting Energy Prices explains the key drivers of the oil, gas, coal and power markets, and the interactions between the competing fuels. The course outlines the three main forecasting techniques: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and econometric analysis, and explains their relevance to forecasting energy prices in particular time frames. An approach to forecasting energy prices is outlined, using a model of substitution between the competing fuels depending on prices and environmental constraints. Key exogenous factors that may impact energy prices are identified, and consideration is also given of the potential impact of new technology on the fundamentals of supply and demand for each of the fuels in the future. The use of high/low and base case scenarios, and the concept of nominal and constant dollar forecasts are explained.
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Forecasting crude oil and oil products prices

Forecasting crude oil and oil products prices

Course title: Forecasting crude oil and oil products prices

Course Code: FCPP

Course summary: The 4-day course Forecasting Crude Oil and Oil Products Prices explains the key drivers of crude oil and oil product prices, and explains how these can be forecast in a logical and consistent manner over different time frames. The course outlines the three main forecasting techniques: fundamental analysis, technical analysis and econometric analysis, and explains their relevance to forecasting oil prices in particular time frames. An approach to forecasting oil products prices based on crude oil prices is outlined, using a model of refining margins and then allocating the oil product crack spreads within this framework based on the fundamental supply-demand outlook for individual oil products. Key exogenous factors that may impact prices are identified, and consideration is also given of the potential impact of new technology on the fundamentals of supply and demand in the future. The use of high/low and base case scenarios, and the concept of nominal and constant dollar forecasts are explained.
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Energy Fundamentals

Energy Fundamentals

Course title: Energy Fundamentals

Course Code: ESCF

Course summary: The 4-day course Energy Fundamentals explains the value chain from upstream to downstream for oil, gas and coal, and examines how renewable forms of energy fit in to the overall energy supply-demand picture. This course looks at the economics of exploration and production for each of the major fossil fuels, and the value chain that links these upstream developments with the final consumer in the power sector, industry, transport, commercial and residential. The supply and demand for each of the fuels is analysed on a regional basis, with balances in each region being built up into a model of typical trade flows. This course looks at he whole value chain from the extraction and processing of the various fuels, through to storage and distribution and ultimately the retail network.
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